Thursday, November 04, 2004

Who Won, By County

The geographic patterns in this USA Today map are interesting.

Wednesday, November 03, 2004

Post Mortem II

Email correspondence to a good friend, edited appropriately:

I'm pretty depressed today. Had pretty high hopes going into last night. The left (The Well, Kos, Atrios, etc) seemed to have totally over-hyped the youth-cellphone-first voter effect. Evidently the GOP had it's own latent base that it also energized.


I've been reading a lot of Voltaire lately and I am amazed by the parallels between the religious orthodoxy that
Voltaire critiqued and the religious right today. But the Democrats have to remember Voltaire's principal message, which is that faith and reason aren't mutually exclusive. True liberals don't hate God.

I understand rich people, rightwing jeezzzus freaks, etc. voting for Bush. But over 50 percent of the electorate? With over 1,000 dead and 7,000 wounded (just counting Americans) in a war demonstrably based on false pretenses? And an economy that has sucked eggs (not just for workers but also for investors) for the last four years? The American people can't collectively be that stupid. I feel like I'm missing something big and obvious.

Post Mortem I

Bush is a polarizing President, hence the tightest margin of victory
by a successful incumbent in who knows how long. Lots of people voted
against him.

The problem was with the challenger. Unlike Bush he didn't have a
simple message. And too much of a paper trail in the Senate. And too
much nuance. Hence the flip-flopper vulnerability.

Think of the two Democrats who in the last 30 years ran successfully
for President. Two governors with no Senate record to explain. (ditto
Reagan). Both fluent in the language of the faithful. Both from the
South, not Mass-a chew-setts liberals. Simple messages.

Despite all this, I suspect Kerry might have pulled it out had he
focused on the economy, rather than his war cred. Jesus, Ohio is an
economic basket case. Kerry got rope-a-doped.







Future Map of North America



Thanks to Leslie.

Ohio Provisional Ballots

Kos explains how Kerry can win Ohio.

Tuesday, November 02, 2004

President Edwards?

According to this NYT op-ed piece, it's not inconceivable.

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